San Diego Market Report 2026: Prices, Rates, and What Comes Next

The headline for 2026 in San Diego County is balance. After years of peak frenzy, the market has settled into something closer to normal: more homes for sale, slower sales, and prices that are holding firm rather than surging.

The numbers that matter

The county median price stood near $905K in early 2026, roughly flat to up slightly year over year. Inventory spent 2025 rising to its highest summer level since 2019, and ran around 2.2 months of supply in spring 2026, still below the balanced-market benchmark but far from the scarcity of the pandemic years. Days on market climbed back to a more typical 28 to 44 days depending on the month, which means buyers finally have time to think and sellers have to price right the first time.

Rates are the whole show

30-year conforming mortgage rates spent 2025 between about 6.5% and 7%, then stabilized in the low 6s in 2026 with occasional dips below 6%. Every dip unlocks demand: when rates briefly fell under 6% in February 2026, sales jumped roughly 22% month over month. That's the pent-up buyer pool waiting on the sidelines, and it's the single biggest wildcard for the rest of the year.

What this means for buyers

2026 is widely described as the friendliest buyer environment since 2019. More choices, more negotiating room, and sellers increasingly willing to consider below-asking offers, rate buydowns, and closing concessions. Buyers who have been waiting for the market to crack may not see prices drop much, but they are seeing calmer competition and real leverage, which can matter just as much.

What this means for sellers

The stretch-price era is over. Sellers who list at an honest number, present the home well, and give buyers a reason to act will find a serious market. The flip side: overpriced homes sit, then chase the market down, and that's the most expensive strategy in a balanced market. My advice to every seller is the same, lead with the right number and let the strategy do the work.

A balanced market rewards the prepared on both sides. That's where honest numbers and real strategy earn their keep.

Where to go for more

The full report, with town-by-town median prices across Encinitas, Carlsbad, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Oceanside, Carmel Valley, and Vista, plus sources, lives on my market report page. And if you want the numbers for your exact street, send me a note and I'll pull current comps for your home type and neighborhood.